Over a weekend, I recorded a podcast with a Fresno State Scout associate BarkBoard.com, and among a topics we overwhelmed on was that of pledge games when Power 5 teams play Group of 5 teams.
The site pennyless a news final week that Alabama lined adult Fresno for a diversion in 2017. Bama will compensate out $1.4 million for a game, that is about a going rate for MWC teams these days. Alabama payed $1.5 million to Colorado State in 2013, while Auburn’s 2014 and 2015 games opposite San Jose State cost $1.5 million and $1.6 million, respectively. Other leagues can still cost a lot too. Southern Miss got $1.4 million from Alabama final year, while Florida paid $1 million to ULL and $1.25 million to Bowling Green in 2012. These games are removing expensive.
In new years, about a usually thing accessible to reason costs down has been a expansion of games opposite FCS opponents. Payouts for those games from Power 5 schools typically come in a $450,000 to $550,000 range. That is since FBS schools keep scheduling those games. It’s not that violence Eastern Kentucky is that many easier than violence Eastern Michigan, yet rather it’s distant rebate costly to do so.
I consider that a payouts for these games will continue to grow in a prolonged run, yet in a brief to middle term, we competence see prices box out or even drop. The reason is due to some scheduling changes that a Power 5 conferences have implemented.
I attempted to calculate a series of intensity pledge games for 2014, 2015, and 2016, as good as 2017 into a future. we have a garland of caveats and explanations that’ll go during a bottom of a post.
For this, we am looking during members of a Power 5 conferences (which includes Notre Dame) and members of a Group of Five non-power conferences (including independents). we am not including frequently scheduled games between P5 and non-P5 teams, such as Colorado-Colorado State and Notre Dame-Navy, as intensity pledge games. Any annual games between energy discussion teams, like a 4 SEC-ACC rivalries, also brought a intensity series of pledge games down. we even went by all 65 Power 5 teams to see who does and who doesn’t typically line adult FCS games any year. we did my best to consider of everything.
In 2014, a limit intensity direct for pledge games was 147. That would be a figure if a usually non-conference games between Power 5 schools are a annual ones like Florida-Florida State and Notre Dame-USC. we accounted for a 9 schools that don’t frequently play FCS opponents, like UCLA and Penn State. we accounted for all independents. The series I’m going with is 147.
Now, we didn’t have 147 pledge games. There were games like Georgia-Clemson and Missouri-Indiana that aren’t annual affairs. The sum games between Power 5 and non-Power 5 teams was 114. Rest positive that we know that not all of those were loyal pledge games; Ole Miss played Boise State in one of a Atlanta kickoff games, for instance. Most of them were, so we will continue to use “guarantee game” to impute to any P5 vs. G5 diversion for a consequence of convenience.
In 2015, a fanciful max of direct for pledge games goes adult to 148 due to Florida irreverence off FCS opponents. The sum series of Power 5 vs. non-Power 5 games in 2015 will be 115. The boost of one in games played is not indispensably due to UF holding on another Group of 5 opponent, as a series of such games altered for any energy discussion solely a Pac-12. In both 2014 and 2015, a commission of intensity pledge slots being used for pledge games was right about 77.7%.
Before raised a future, let’s speak about a supply of teams for these pledge games. we insincere that Group of 5 teams all wish to play an normal 2.25 pledge games a year. Every G5 discussion plays an 8 diversion schedule, giving them all 4 non-conference slots. Basically all, if not indeed all, G5 teams play an FCS group any year, and a serve rebate of 3 buliding of a diversion is a benefaction to a fact that not any G5 module would wish to play 3 Power 5 teams a year if given a opportunity—but some would.
Putting all that together, we get a intensity supply of 120 for pledge games in 2014. With 114 games indeed happening, that was an overage of 5.3%. In 2015, a supply rises by 6 to 126 as a outcome of Navy fasten a AAC. The Midshipmen will no longer eat adult 7 non-conference slots for G5 teams as they typically have, yet they no longer will play a non-Notre Dame Power 5 group as they typically have. That creates for an overage of 9.6%.
Already, my estimated supply is larger than demand. Prices have continued to arise in new years notwithstanding that, though, as a altogether volume of income in a diversion has risen. Plus, games between G5 teams can get finished good in advance, that can intermittently leave last-minute selling Power 5 teams no viable G5 partners whose schedules line adult with their own. Therefore, some energy programs will compensate a small additional for assent of mind in destiny scheduling. we consider this guess is about right. Potential supply is substantially aloft than demand, yet not by much.
Once we demeanour into a future, things start to go bad for a Group of 5 teams. In 2016, a fanciful limit of a direct drops from 148 to a operation of 135-137. Of that drop, 3 games can be explained by a Big Ten going to a nine-game discussion report while also banning FCS opponents. The direct declines by 14 interjection to a ninth discussion game, yet it increases by 11 since that’s how many B1G schools typically report an FCS team.
The rest of a decrease comes from a SEC’s requirement that all schools contingency play during slightest one Power 5 group in a non-conference. It could be as many as 10, since that’s how many SEC schools don’t have annual rivalries with Power 5 schools. we am presumption a building during eight. The SEC will concede schools to count independents as Power 5 non-conference opponents, and that includes BYU and Army. Assuming BYU and Army play no some-more than one SEC group a year, that adds adult to dual games behind into a supply pool. In existence many SEC schools have been backing adult during slightest one P5 competition a year anyway, yet we’re articulate fanciful limit here.
In 2017, a ACC has a possess Power 5 non-conference proviso kicking in. Now, it does have a five-game scheduling arrangement with Notre Dame, and if a group gets a Irish in a given year, that can count as a P5 non-conference game. BYU, yet not Army, can count as a Power 5 group as well. That process will revoke a fanciful limit by anywhere from four—in years when nothing of a SEC’s rivals get ND and someone uses BYU—to as many as nine—assuming all of a SEC’s rivals got ND and no one uses BYU. Beginning that year, a fanciful limit of direct drops to a operation of 126-133.
If a Power 5 conferences continue to indeed play about 77.7% of a intensity maximum, a series of games will decrease from a 114-115 operation to 104-105 in 2016. It’ll afterwards go down to 97-102 from 2017 and on. Instead of supply surpassing direct by 5-9%, we’ll be articulate 20-21% in 2016 and 23.5-30% from 2017 and on.
With a conspicuous dump in demand, elementary economics would envision a tumble in prices. Because a marketplace for these games isn’t perfect, interjection to things like wanting to report games good in allege and compare creation problems caused by games that are already in place, we don’t know that we’ll see costs indeed go down by all that much, if during all. we do design to see a costs for these games to stop flourishing for a time, though.
Changes on a setting don’t preference a mid-majors either, that serve strengthens this prediction. The augmenting recognition of neutral site games offers Power 5 teams a possibility during a good paycheck though carrying to bombard out for a opponent. If a College Football Playoff preference cabinet continues to preference strength of schedule, it competence inspire Power 5 teams to report some-more games opposite any other. Plateauing and even disappearing assemblage during games competence inspire large time programs to report fewer pledge games as well. UAB’s contingent lapse to a FBS turn will meant one some-more mouth to feed among a G5 set, and destiny increases to a FBS ranks—which have grown from 117 to 128 in a final 10 years—will usually boost a supply further.
The usually thing that would preference a Group of 5 teams in a large approach would be if other Power 5 conferences follow a Big Ten’s lead and anathema a scheduling of FCS teams. The fanciful limit direct for games opposite G5 teams would arise by approximately 44 games per year from 2016 and on by my count. The Big 12 expanding would assistance a small by augmenting a sum series of Power 5 teams, yet that doesn’t demeanour expected for now.
If we was an AD of a Group of 5 program, we would be perplexing to report as many pledge games as probable right now before these marketplace realities set in and a large boys comprehend that a payouts for these games don’t have to keep going up.
- I insincere a following programs to be ones that do not, by policy, report FCS opponents. Some of them have finished so in a past, yet they do it intermittently adequate that we counted them out: Michigan, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Penn State, Stanford, Texas, UCLA, and USC. Florida assimilated their ranks for 2015 and on, and we insincere no Big Ten schools would take FCS opponents from 2016 on. Iowa competence get one or dual interjection to some games already carrying been scheduled, yet that’s not a repeated thing to count on.
- I insincere Notre Dame will play usually one loyal pledge diversion per year. we do not count a games opposite a use academies as such. It will play both Miami (Ohio) and Temple in 2017, yet that seems like an aberration.
- For BYU, we insincere it plays 4 Power 5 teams, 7 Group of 5 teams, and one FCS competition per year formed on a new story as an independent. Those total will fluctuate, yet it’ll substantially normal out to around that. The P5 rate competence go adult interjection to a SEC and ACC’s new rules, yet we’ll see.
- For Army and Navy, we also used new story to come adult with a standard report of dual Power 5 teams, 9 Group of 5 teams, and one FCS opponent. For both of them, we accounted for a fact that they always play a other dual use academies and reduced a intensity supply of pledge games accordingly. In Navy’s case, we accounted for one of those P5 opponents always being Notre Dame and a fact that it’s no longer an eccentric as of 2015. Army does play Notre Dame frequently, but not frequently adequate to comment for it personification Notre Dame any year as we did with Navy for 2014.
- I went a additional mile and accounted for a Hawaii exemption. To assistance a Rainbow Warriors with scheduling, any group that plays a highway diversion in a islands can have a 13th diversion on their schedule. Hawaii itself can also have a 13th game. Looking during new seasons, generally one Power 5 and one Group of 5 group per year has taken advantage of that rule, and Hawaii fundamentally always plays 13. So, a direct is aloft by one and a supply is aloft by dual than they differently would be interjection to this rule. If MWC opponents start to take advantage of it regularly, supplement anywhere from one to 4 to a supply count.